US Makes Progress Reopening Hormuz     09/11 06:09

   In recent weeks, the United States has succeeded in loosening Iran's grip 
over the Strait of Hormuz while virtually shutting down Iran's own oil exports, 
accelerating its economic free fall.

   (AP) -- In recent weeks, the United States has succeeded in loosening Iran's 
grip over the Strait of Hormuz while virtually shutting down Iran's own oil 
exports, accelerating its economic free fall.

   But the war launched by the U.S. and Israel in February -- intended to last 
a few weeks -- is still far from over, and the stalemate is costly for both 
sides. An agreement reached in June quickly crumbled, with no sign of 
diplomatic progress since then. Low-level fighting persists, and the U.S. does 
not seem to have an exit strategy.

   The mounting economic pressure on Iran has yet to stoke an uprising, and if 
its leaders are backed into a corner, they may opt for military escalation 
rather than capitulation. Their Houthi allies in Yemen have meanwhile stepped 
up attacks on Saudi Arabia, helping to push oil prices back up.

   The price of a barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged 
above $100 this week, and diesel -- heavily used in transport and farming -- 
hit a record, potentially stoking inflation. U.S. President Donald Trump has 
acknowledged that gas prices are likely to stay high through the midterm 
congressional elections.

   "Unfortunately, the U.S. is not winning in the war with Iran despite its 
limited success in loosening Iran's grip over the strait and the devastating 
impact on Iran's economy," said Mona Yacoubian, a Middle East expert at the 
Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

   "Iran shows no sign of backing down, and instead has demonstrated a 
willingness to not only fight back, but escalate wherever it can. The war is 
likely to be protracted with no clear victor."

   Iran loses leverage as oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz

   Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz -- through which a fifth of the 
world's traded oil and gas transits in peacetime -- in the opening days of the 
war, using the worldwide economic shock as leverage. Meanwhile, it continued to 
export its own oil, mainly to China.

   But in recent weeks, the balance has reversed. A U.S. blockade has virtually 
halted Iran's exports, while the American military has facilitated greater 
exports by Gulf countries, according to figures compiled by Homayoun 
Falakshahi, an oil expert at Kpler, a global trade monitor.

   He found that Iran's oil exports had dropped from 1.85 million barrels a day 
last spring to around 255,000 in August. Exports of non-Iranian oil rose from 
300,000 barrels a day at the height of the war to 8.4 million in September, and 
exports through alternative routes took that number to 10.8 million.

   U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright boasted of similar figures on Sunday, 
saying "we're probably two-thirds or more of preconflict flows." Non-Iranian 
exports were at around 14 million barrels a day before the war, according to 
Falakshahi.

   But the increased flow depends on a major U.S. deployment in the strait that 
has strained the military's resources. The unpopular war has already cost U.S. 
taxpayers more than $37.5 billion and left 18 U.S. service members dead, and is 
expected to weigh on Republicans in November's election.

   Tehran could escalate in other ways

   The tightened blockade and new U.S. sanctions are already taking a heavy 
toll on Iran's economy, driving up prices and causing even longer lines outside 
gas stations.

   But so far, it's shown no sign of pushing the country's increasingly 
hard-line leaders to make concessions on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's disputed 
nuclear program or its support for armed groups in the region.

   "Washington's main problem is that it still lacks a theory of victory: More 
ships are getting through, and Iran is hurting, yet none of that has produced a 
political outcome," said Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at the International Crisis 
Group think tank.

   Iran has continued to attack ships in the strait, drawing limited U.S. 
strikes on its coastal areas and then responding with missile attacks on Arab 
countries hosting U.S. forces. Trump recently dismissed the conflict as "small 
potatoes."

   But with the U.S. supply of sophisticated interceptors showing strain, Iran 
could be tempted to escalate its attacks -- or respond through regional proxies.

   The Iran-backed Houthis launched a wave of attacks on Saudi oil facilities 
this week as part of a conflict that goes back more than a decade but has 
heated up in recent weeks. The Houthis are also attacking Saudi shipping, 
threatening its oil exports and a crucial trade route through the Bab el-Mandeb 
chokepoint leading to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.

   The Houthis have damaged Saudi Arabia's Jizan refinery, a large supplier of 
diesel and jet fuel to Europe, Falakshahi said. The volume of Saudi oil passing 
through the Bab el-Mandeb bound for Asia has plunged from around 3.4 million 
barrels a day in June to just 128,000 in August, according to Kpler's figures, 
though it has recovered slightly to some 700,000 barrels per day in September.

   "Tehran has repeatedly signaled that it will respond to growing U.S. 
pressure by moving up the escalation ladder, not by backing down," Danny 
Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security 
Studies and a former Israeli intelligence officer focused on Iran, wrote on X.

   "Iran will not simply accept an indefinite maritime blockade, nor will it 
allow Washington to impose mounting economic costs without imposing costs of 
its own," he wrote.